TECHCET— the electronic materials advisory firm providing business and technology information on semiconductor supply chains — is forecasting the Semiconductor CMP materials market to decline around 4% for both pads and slurries in 2023. This decline comes after a year of solid growth in the 2022 CMP segment that reached 3.5B USD in revenue, a 9% increase from 2021, as highlighted in the quarterly update to TECHCET’s Critical Materials Report™ on CMP. The coming decline is highly attributable to general slowdowns in the global economy as seen with rising inflation, increases in the cost of living, and lingering effects of global events like the Russian invasion of Ukraine and COVID-19. This decline is expected to rebound after 2023, given the forecasted 4.8% CAGR for 2022-2027, as shown in the graph below.
Issues in the supply chain continue to complicate the CMP material market segment. CMP equipment suppliers are seeing shifts to longer lead times by several months on electronic sub-components which slows down the expansion plans of the device maker. Additionally, transportation delays, major price increases for overseas shipments, and warehousing challenges are all resulting in higher costs and quality issues.
By 2025, there could be a potential upside in the CMP market as chip fabricators and material suppliers begin operating in new expansion facilities. Fujifilm, for instance, has invested US$350 million in its US business, which includes CMP products.